Context:  Studies have shown that states and counties that adopt fewer restrictions on concealed handgun laws experience changes in crime rates.  These studies show that violent crime rates decrease while rates of crime against personal property increase.

Objective:  To see if Utah’s crime rates have changed since passage of gun legislation in 1995 that made it easier to obtain a concealed carry permit.

Design:  A population-based analysis of existing crime and routinely gathered demographic data in the state of Utah.

Setting:  The State of Utah, 1992-1997.

Results:  Crime rates against personal property continued to decline after the passage of the concealed legislation of 1995.  Violent crime rates showed mixed results; assaults and robberies decreased, rape increased, and murder increased among young men.  Incidence of unintentional firearm injuries fell from1992 to 1997.  Crimes of assault, rape and murder did not increase or decrease in months after gun shows.  The rate of revocation of conceal carry permits remains below the level before the adoption of conceal carry law.  Assaults and weapons possession in schools had mixed trends.  Assaults and weapons possessions increased in elementary school, but remained unchanged in secondary schools.

Conclusion:  Passage of concealed carry legislation in Utah does not fit the trends in crime rates experienced by other states that have passed similar laws. Previous research indicates that crimes against individuals decrease while crimes against property involving stealth increase after passage of conceal carry laws.  In Utah:
1. Murder rates decreased overall after 1995.  However, there was a marked increase in the murder rates committed by males in the 10-24 age group, probably due to gang violence.
2. Assault rates decreased at an accelerated rate.
3. Rape rates do not appear to be affected by the law.
4. Robbery rates decreased at a greater rate.
5. Crimes against property involving stealth (burglary, larceny, auto theft) did not increase as predicted and do not seem to be affected by the law.
6. The unintentional firearm injury rates decreased despite a 17-fold increase in permit holders, which indicates that responsible individuals carry guns.
7. Assaults and weapons possession in elementary schools show that these schools may be developing into a more hostile environment, while secondary schools do not appear to have changed.
8. Permit revocation reasons shows that permit holders do not use their firearms to commit crime.

BACKGROUND

In 1995 the state of Utah passed legislation making it easier to obtain a permit to lawfully carry a concealed weapon.  Studies of crime in states with similar legislation indicate that violent crime rates (murder, assault, rape and robbery) tend to decrease and personal property crime rates (burglary, larceny, and auto theft) tend to increase.1

The purpose of this study is to investigate crime rates in Utah from 1992-97 and to examine if the liberalization of the concealed carry laws in 1995 had a similar association as cited above.  Additionally, we studied crime rate data to examine the impact of gun show sales, unintentional firearm injury data, school weapons possession, school based assault data, and permit carry holder data.

METHODS

Data for the study was obtained from public records as follows:

Data for the crimes of assault, rape, murder, auto theft, burglary, larceny, and robbery was obtained from the Bureau of Criminal Identification, a division of the Utah Department of Public Safety.  This data is age, sex and month specific with the exception of murder data for which the age and sex of perpetrators is not always known.

Data for unintentional firearm injuries was obtained from the Utah Hospital Discharge Database for External Injuries for the IC09-E code 922.

Data for student weapons possession, student assaults, and average student attendance was obtained from the Utah Department of Education.

Data for age and sex specific population counts was obtained from the Governor’s Office of planning and budget website.

Data for the concealed weapon permit holders and revocation of permits was obtained from the Bureau of Criminal Identification.

Five year age specific crime rates were calculated for violent crime (murder, assault, rape and robbery), personal property crime (burglary, larceny, and auto theft), and unintentional firearm injuries.  Rates were calculated by dividing by the male population in the age range and specific year and multiplying the number of male arrests by 100,000.  These rates were then revised for population change by adjusting to Utah’s 1992 population.

We hypothesized that conceal carry permit holders would attend gun shows to purchase firearms or receive their conceal carry training.  For gun show sales analysis, we hypothesized the change in crimes would be seen in the month following a gun show given the data was month specific.  We looked at violent crimes of murder, rape, and assault.  Crimes committed each month over the years of 1992-1996 were added together to look for associated month to month increases or decreases.  The increase or decrease was then compared with the months of gun shows in the Salt Lake area February, April, September, and November.

Weapons possession and assault counts for Utah’s elementary and secondary schools have only been kept since the 1995-96 school year.  Assault is defined as "unlawful attack upon another to inflict severe bodily injury." A weapons possession is defined as  "any instrument possessed to inflict harm on others" and is not specific for firearms.  The number of possessions reflects only those students who were caught with a weapon.  Weapons possession and assault rates were figured by multiplying the total number of year offenses divided by the average daily student membership and then multiplied by 1000 to convert to rate/1000 students.

The concealed carry permit data is not sex or age specific.  Revocation rates per year were calculated by dividing the number of permit holders and multiplying the number of revocations each year by 1000.  Revocations by reason data was only available for 107 of 144 total revocations since 1989.  Rates were estimated by dividing the number of revocations in each category by the total number of revocations and then multiplying by 100 to convert to a percentage.

RESULTS

Violent crime results are as follows:

Murder rates peaked in 1996 and then fell in 1997(See data in chart 1).  Murder rates among boys ages 0-9 and men older than 24 have dropped steadily since 1995.  Murders committed by young men ages 10-24 rose sharply in 1996 and remained high in 1997.

Assaults decreased during the years of 1992-97 with a sharp drop in 1996, the year following the enactment of the new gun carry law (See data in chart 2).

Rapes perpetrated by both young men age 10-24 and men older than 24 have increased since1995 (See data in chart 3).

Robberies have dropped steadily since 1995 and have the greatest drop among young men age 10 to 24 (See data in chart 4).

Personal property crime (burglary, larceny, and auto theft) rates have decreased each year since 1992 (See data in chart 5).  The rate has decreased almost 50% for these crimes in the age groups of 10-14 and 15-19.  Crime rates in the 20-24 age group declined slightly and the other groups show little or no change.

Crime rates following gun shows for murder, rape and assault are as follows:

 Murder rates decreased every month following a gun show (See data in chart 6).

Rapes decreased twice (September and November) and increased twice (February and April) (See data in chart 7).

 Assaults increase every month following a gun show (See data in chart 8).
 

The rates of weapons possession and assaults in school are different for elementary and secondary schools (See data in Chart 9).  Possession rates in elementary schools have risen over the last three years and assault rates were highest in the 97/98 school year.  Possession rates in secondary schools have remained steady at two incidents per 1000 students and assaults have dropped by three incidents per 1,000 students.

The total number of conceal carry permits have increased exponentially since the year 1995.  The numbers of revocations have never risen above 56 in any give year (See data in chart 10).  The rate of revocations per 1,000 permit holders peaked in 1994 before the passage of the concealed carry legislation of 1995 (See data in chart 11).  The most common reason for having a permit revoked is alcohol related and not related to misuse of a firearm (See data in chart 12).  In spite of the increase number of permit holders, unintentional firearm injuries have continued to decrease since 1995 (See data in chart 13).

DISCUSSION

Crime and unintentional firearm injury data presented in this paper are specific for males.  The number of crimes and injuries in the female population was small in relation to the male population.

Violent crimes (murder, assault, rape, and robbery) and personal crimes (burglary, larceny, and auto theft) in this study did not follow all the trends suggested by Lott’s study.  Murder rates by young men have accelerated, assault rates modeled Lott’s study, but were already decreasing before 1995, rape rates have increased and pointedly since 1995, and robbery rates model Lott’s study peaking in 1995 and decreasing since.  Personal property crime rates have decreased.

The data indicates that homicide and rape perpetrators are not being deterred by the increase in citizens carrying concealed handguns.  Assault rates and personal property crimes have continued to decrease, but were doing so before the passage of the law.  Robbery rates appear to have been impacted, decreasing since the 1995 law passage.

No correlation between the crimes of murder, rape, and assault and the months gun shows were conducted in the Salt Lake City area was found.  These crimes both increased and decreased the month following a gun show equally.

Unintentional firearm injuries have been reduced since passage of the 1995 law even with the increasing number of concealed firearm permit carriers.  This may suggest that one positive result from training required to obtain the permits is safer usage of firearms in the community.

Weapons possession and assaults have increased among elementary students.  The rate of possession among this age group increased 31% over the last three recorded years (95/96 to 97/98).  This may suggest that Utah’s elementary schools have become more hostile.  Note that weapons possession in this data includes any object that could inflict harm including guns, knives, and other weapons.

The trends in weapons possession and assaults do not continue with secondary school students.  This may suggest that the more violent environment has not reached the secondary system.  Further research would be needed to better understand these issues in Utah’s school system.

The rate of revocations per permit holder was highest in 1994 before the new law at 4 revocations per 1000 permit holders.  By comparison, the 1998 revocation rate was 2.5 revocations per 1000, almost half the 1994 rate.  The data suggests there is not a causal link between increasing crime rates and the number of concealed carry permit holders in the community.  Currently, approximately 25,000 Utahns have permits, a 17-fold increase, at the same time the rate of the crimes of assault, robbery, and personal property have been decreasing or remaining stable. The decline in firearm injuries would suggest improved safe use of firearms in the community.  Additionally, the data does not suggest a link between permit holders and the increase in murder and rape by young men as this would be reflected by increasing revocation rates as opposed to the decreasing rates in the data.

No data is available that specifically records the number of concealed carry permit holders that have committed crimes or caused problems in schools, churches, and private business.  Contacts were made to the Department of Public Safety, Utah Department of Education, and the Office of the Governor for any information such as complaints filed or incidence rates.  These agencies had no data to suggest this was a problem or that any complaints had been filed.

1. Lott, John R., Jr. More Guns, Less Crime. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press,
      1998.